生态环境部通报2018-2019年蓝天保卫战重点区域强化督查工作进展（7月29日）
专家点评观点
2018年7月30日，生态环境部通报了2018-2019年蓝天保卫战重点区域强化督查工作的进展，燃煤锅炉的淘汰位列通报第一项，检查清单内应淘汰燃煤锅炉企业352家，发现1台燃煤锅炉未拆除，占比0.3%；发现清单外应淘汰燃煤锅炉28台。
国家推进“煤改气”的目标和决心引发各界对天然气供应问题的关注。2017年底频频刷屏的『气荒』和『气短』到底该如何解决？
下文专家观点分享节选自李俊峰主任于2017年12月发表的文章《共同推动『煤改气』成为得民心、顺民意的民心工程和德政工程》，今天回头看，依然有很强的指导意义。
根据国家发委公布的数据，我国2017年天然气消费量为2373亿立方米，比2016年增长15.3%，天然气消费量增加315亿立方米。据李俊峰主任估计，其中由“煤改气”增加的天然气消费量不会超过50亿-60亿立方米，仅占2017年全国天然气消费量的2%多一点，占全年新增天然气消费量的1/6左右。
我国天然气消费的弹性比较大，替代性也比较强，供求关系形势变化比较快。各地在为天然气消费不足发愁，千方百计地扩大天然气消费市场，就是一个明显的例证。
由此可以看出，只要各方面工作到位，保障“煤改气”的用气量是没有问题的。现在只要政府稍微协调一下，大部分问题就可以得到解决。比如国家发展改革委要求各大企业之间进行互保互供、南气北送、压缩天然气发电保民用等措施，用气形势就立刻得到了很大改观。
同时“煤改气”过程中出现的“气荒”“气短”等问题，给各级政府和企业敲响了警钟，“煤改气”之后，保障农村天然气供应也应该纳入国家层面的协调机制。一些成熟的协调机制，比如电力系统的“迎峰度夏”，北方冬季供暖的煤炭储备协调机制等，都值得借鉴。
民生无小事，期望有关部门建立保障城乡居民用气的协商机制，制定各种预案，防患于未然，把问题解决在萌芽之中。
OilChem Insights
How to Overcome Gas Shortage in the Campaign to Switch Coal to Gas?
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) updated the progress of supervision about clean air action in key areas, the elimination of coal-fueled boiler was ranked first in the release, and there was one item of violation in the list of 352 enterprises who should eliminate coal-fueled boilers.
The target and determination of China’s promotion of coal conversion to gas have raised concerns about natural gas supply. How to solve the gas shortage that occurred frequently in the winter of 2017?
The comments below are adapted from the article published by Li Junfeng in Dec. 2017. Even today, there is still a great deal of significance.
According to the data released by NDRC, China's natural gas consumption volume was 237.3 billion cubic meters in 2017, up 31.5 billion cubic meters or 15.3 percent compared to 2016. It was estimated by Li Junfeng that, the increased natural gas consumption by coal conversion to gas was 5 to 6 billion cubic meters, accounting for a little more than 2 percent of the total natural gas consumption, or one sixth of the newly added natural gas consumption in China in 2017.
China's natural gas consumption sees a strong substitutability and volume flexibility, and the supply and demand status changes rapidly. The worries over natural gas consumption shortage and efforts to expand its market is an obvious evidence of that.
So, there is no problem to guarantee the coal conversion to gas volume if all aspects of work are arranged properly by the government, such as the mutual supply among major gas enterprises, gas transportation from South to North, and securing residential use by reducing electricity generating.
Meanwhile, the gas shortage during the coal conversion to gas is an alert to governments and enterprises. The security of gas supply of rural areas should be incorporated to the coordination mechanism at the national level. Some mature mechanism is worthy of taking for reference, such as summer peak of electricity system and coal storage coordination mechanism during winter heating season.
专家介绍
李俊峰，国家应对气候变化战略和国际合作中心首任主任、第九届扎耶德未来能源终身成就奖获得者。
